What Is Really Happening in Venezuela?

Venezuela has been in a slow, grinding collapse for years, but the headlines barely scratch the surface of what is actually happening there—and why the United States keeps such a close eye on it. Most people outside the region still think of Venezuela as a broken socialist experiment or an oil-rich country that somehow ran out of gas. The truth is far more complex, and far more strategic.

The most recent presidential election is a perfect example. The opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, actually won. Not “won” in the sense of disputed polls or anecdotal claims—he genuinely won the vote, according to every credible independent tally. Venezuelans showed up, pushed back against years of authoritarian drift, and voted for change. But when the numbers came in, the system simply refused to accept them. The electoral authority, controlled top-to-bottom by Maduro’s government, withheld the full results. The Supreme Court backed the regime. And the military leadership—always the final arbiter in Venezuela—publicly pledged loyalty to Maduro. So even though the opposition secured the mandate, Maduro kept the presidency. The world witnessed an election where the winner didn’t take office.

This is the environment Washington is navigating, and it explains why the U.S. refuses to take its eyes off Venezuela. At the center of everything is oil. Venezuela still has the largest proven oil reserves on the planet. If that industry ever stabilizes under a legitimate and competently run government, it would reshape global energy markets overnight. For the United States, that’s both an opportunity and a national security concern, depending on who controls the production and who they align with.

And that leads to the second reason the U.S. cares: great-power competition. Venezuela is no longer just a struggling country—it’s a strategic beachhead for China, Russia, and Iran. China is embedded in Venezuelan telecom, logistics, surveillance systems, and debt structures. Russia has military and intelligence ties that go back decades. Iran supplies fuel, supports sanctions-evasion networks, and uses Venezuelan territory for activities Washington watches very closely. The United States cannot afford to ignore a country with that much foreign influence sitting in its own hemisphere.

There’s also the human factor. Nearly eight million Venezuelans have fled the country, creating one of the largest mass migrations in modern history. That wave of people is reshaping neighboring countries and increasingly affecting U.S. domestic politics. You cannot stabilize the region—or America’s southern border—without addressing what is happening inside Venezuela.

On the ground, the country is stuck in a strange limbo. The economy has embraced an unofficial form of dollarization that keeps small pockets of commerce alive, but it’s not sustainable. Infrastructure barely functions. The opposition retains broad popular support, but the regime has the intelligence services, the courts, the military, and the economic levers. Foreign actors are deeply entrenched. Everyone knows the election was stolen, but there is no mechanism internally that can reverse it.

And that brings us to the future. As we head toward 2026, it’s unlikely that Maduro voluntarily steps aside. He may entertain the idea of a “transition,” but it will be a transition he controls—one where he or a handpicked successor stays insulated from prosecution, sanctions, or accountability. The U.S. will continue to pressure him, but it will do so quietly, balancing two conflicting needs: stabilizing oil markets and pushing back against China and Iran’s growing footprint. Sanctions will tighten and loosen in cycles based on whatever leverage Washington needs in the moment.

Meanwhile, China and Iran will double down. They see Venezuela as a long-term strategic win: a foothold near the United States with economic, political, and military value. The opposition will continue fighting, but without institutional power, it is uphill every step of the way. And the average Venezuelan will keep navigating a system that was never designed to give them a path to real change.

If you’re looking for the most realistic forecast for 2026, it’s this: Maduro stays in charge, or someone he appoints does. The election results remain unrecognized internally. Foreign influence deepens. The United States continues a careful balancing act. Trump has a plan and the world will watch and see what his administration does. Until then, everyday Venezuelans keep paying the price for a system that refuses to reflect their will.

Venezuela is more than a political crisis—it’s a geopolitical chessboard where energy, migration, foreign influence, and authoritarian resilience all collide. And until something fundamental shifts, the trajectory is unlikely to change.